As global trade tensions escalate and protectionist policies tighten, Vietnam is strategically pivoting toward emerging markets to diversify its agricultural export portfolio. With traditional markets like China and the US facing geopolitical uncertainties, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, alongside the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, is prioritizing new destinations such as India, the Middle East, and Africa. This shift, driven by a need to reduce dependency on established economies, aims to secure long-term growth for Vietnam’s agro-forestry-aquatic sector, a cornerstone of its economy. Among the products leading this charge is the vibrant Vietnamese dragon fruit, which is finding eager consumers in markets as vast as India, home to nearly 1.4 billion people.
Diversifying Beyond Traditional Markets
Vietnam’s agricultural exports have long relied on key markets like China and the US, but recent disruptions in global supply chains and stringent tariff policies imposed by major economies have exposed vulnerabilities. The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment (MAE) acknowledges that while these challenges pose risks, they also present an opportunity to recalibrate export strategies. Emerging markets, characterized by large populations and growing food demand, are now in focus as potential growth engines for Vietnamese products ranging from rice and seafood to tropical fruits like dragon fruit. 
In 2024, Vietnam’s export performance underscored both its strengths and the need for diversification. The Philippines emerged as the largest importer of Vietnamese rice, purchasing approximately 3.6 million tonnes, which accounted for 40 percent of the country’s total rice exports. Meanwhile, the European Union (EU), bolstered by the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) effective since August 2020, became Vietnam’s third-largest export market. Under EVFTA’s preferential tariffs, products such as rice, coffee, and seafood saw significant gains, with total export turnover to the EU reaching an estimated US$51.7 billion in 2024, an 18.5 percent increase from the previous year.
Japan and South Korea also remain steadfast markets for Vietnamese agricultural goods, favoring high-quality rice, coffee, tropical fruits, and pepper. However, the MAE is urging businesses to look beyond these established partners. Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment Phùng Đức Tiến emphasized the potential of the Middle East and Islamic markets, where demand for agricultural products, especially Halal-certified goods, is on the rise. “Expanding into these regions is a strategic priority” said Tiến, highlighting opportunities in processed foods, fruits, and seafood.
Emerging Markets: Opportunities and Challenges
The Middle East, with its growing appetite for seafood like tuna and pangasius, offers a promising avenue for Vietnam. Nguyễn Hoài Nam, deputy general secretary of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), noted that Vietnamese seafood already holds a substantial share of imports in the region. However, compliance with Halal standards is critical to unlocking this market fully, as the majority of consumers in countries like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar adhere to Islamic dietary laws.
India, with its massive population and increasing demand for exotic fruits, stands out as another high-potential market. Bùi Trung Thướng, Vietnam’s Trade Counsellor in India, pointed to the growing interest in Vietnamese dragon fruit, a product that aligns well with Indian consumer preferences. Yet, despite this potential, Vietnamese businesses have only scratched the surface of the Indian market, hindered by logistical challenges and a lack of deep market penetration strategies.
Africa and Latin America also feature in Vietnam’s diversification plans, driven by their large populations and rising food needs. The Ministry of Industry and Trade views these regions as untapped opportunities for processed foods, rice, seafood, and tropical fruits. However, penetrating these markets requires navigating unique challenges, including varying regulatory standards and cultural expectations around food products.
Meeting Global Standards
While emerging markets offer fresh opportunities, they also demand adherence to stringent quality and safety standards. Ngô Xuân Nam, deputy director of the Vietnam Sanitary and Phytosanitary Notification Authority and Enquiry Point (SPS Vietnam), highlighted the rigorous requirements of markets like Japan, South Korea, and the EU. “These countries enforce high standards for production and quality control” said Nam, underscoring the need for Vietnamese exporters to invest in modernizing processes and improving product quality to remain competitive.
In the Middle East, cultural compliance adds another layer of complexity. Halal certification, for instance, is non-negotiable for many products entering Islamic markets. Vietnamese businesses must adapt to these requirements to gain a foothold, a process that involves not only certification but also building trust with local consumers unfamiliar with Vietnamese brands.
Economic Implications of Diversification
Vietnam’s push to diversify its export markets carries significant economic implications. Reducing reliance on traditional markets like China and the US could shield the country from the volatility of geopolitical tensions and trade disputes. In 2024, Vietnam’s agricultural sector demonstrated resilience despite global challenges, buoyed by strong performances in Southeast Asia and the EU. However, over-dependence on a narrow set of markets remains a risk, particularly as protectionist policies gain traction worldwide.
The focus on emerging markets also aligns with Vietnam’s broader economic goals of enhancing product value and sustainability. By targeting regions with growing demand, Vietnam can position itself as a reliable supplier of high-quality agricultural goods. For instance, the increasing popularity of dragon fruit in India could pave the way for other tropical fruits, creating a ripple effect for rural farmers who depend on export revenues. A single dragon fruit farmer in Binh Thuan province, a key production area, can earn upwards of 200 million Vietnamese Dong (US$8,000) annually during peak export seasons, a figure that could rise with expanded market access.
Yet, this strategy is not without hurdles. Logistical barriers, such as high shipping costs and limited trade infrastructure, pose challenges in reaching distant markets like Africa and Latin America. Additionally, competition from other agricultural exporters, including Thailand and India itself, could complicate Vietnam’s efforts to carve out a significant market share. Addressing these issues will require coordinated efforts between government agencies and private enterprises to streamline supply chains and build brand recognition abroad.
A Forward-Looking Strategy
Vietnam’s agricultural export sector stands at a critical juncture. The push to diversify into emerging markets reflects a proactive response to global trade uncertainties, but success hinges on the ability to adapt to diverse consumer needs and regulatory landscapes. Investments in quality improvement, certification processes like Halal compliance, and market research will be essential to unlocking the full potential of regions like the Middle East, India, and Africa.
Beyond economics, this shift also carries cultural significance. Agricultural products like dragon fruit and rice are not just commodities; they represent Vietnam’s heritage and the resilience of its farmers. As these goods find new homes on foreign tables, they foster connections between Vietnam and the world, bridging gaps through shared appreciation for food. For rural communities, each successful export deal is a step toward stability and growth, reinforcing the importance of this strategic pivot.
As Vietnam navigates this complex landscape, questions linger about how quickly it can scale up to meet the demands of emerging markets. Will the country’s agricultural sector seize this moment to redefine its global presence, or will logistical and competitive challenges slow its progress? For now, the path forward is one of cautious optimism, with the promise of new horizons driving innovation and ambition.
